Brazilian sector expects accelerated use of China's beef quota in 2027
With the 2026 quota exhausted and a 55% surcharge applied to excess purchases, Brazilian exporters are preparing for the 2027 limit, which may be reached between March and April.
Brazilian beef began facing a total tariff of 67% to enter China after the Asian country exhausted the annual quota of 1.106 million tonnes set for 2026. The charge combines the regular 12% tariff with a 55% surcharge on volumes exceeding the limit.
The end of the quota sharply reduced Brazilian shipments to the Chinese market. In August, exports fell 98%, affecting the margins and cash flow of eligible meatpacking companies. Companies also sought other destinations to offset the lower availability of business with China.
For 2027, the limit was increased to 1.128 million tonnes, an addition of 22,000 tonnes. Even so, industry representatives estimate that the quota could be filled quickly, between March and April, if Chinese purchases maintain a high pace and exporters bring forward sales, production, and shipments.
Concern grew because the 2026 quota was concentrated in the first half of the year. Without a rule to distribute the volumes throughout the year, companies accelerated sales after the mechanism took effect. The prospect of this movement repeating led the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (Abiec) to advocate dividing the 2027 quota among meatpacking companies.
The proposal would take each company's export history into account and distribute shipments over a longer period. According to the sources, the measure was presented to the government but has not yet advanced. Meanwhile, exporters are organizing to begin shipments for the 2027 quota in November, which carries a lower tariff.
The pace of business will also depend on conditions in the Chinese market. The country has high beef inventories, rising pork production, and lower beef prices, factors that may influence the volume of purchases next year.
China is the main destination for Brazilian beef. Between 2016 and 2025, Brazil sent 8.2 million tonnes to the Chinese market in transactions worth US$ 42.3 billion. In 2025, shipments reached 1.6 million tonnes.
The number of meatpacking plants authorized to sell to China may also grow. Currently, 63 facilities are authorized, and a Chinese mission was sent to Brazil to inspect new plants. In addition, two Brazilian facilities, one in Minas Gerais and another in Pernambuco, received authorization to export.