High freight rates and logistics bottlenecks drive Maersk shares higher in 2026
Shares of the Danish company are up nearly 60% this year, while resilient demand, route disruptions, and infrastructure constraints are putting pressure on global transportation and leaving analysts divided over whether the trend will continue.
A.P. Moller-Maersk shares are up nearly 60% in 2026, amid higher ocean freight rates, robust demand, and disruptions in supply chains. The performance led the Danish company to raise its earnings guidance twice during the Northern Hemisphere summer.
Volume resilience continued despite the conflict in the Middle East and the impact of U.S. tariffs. In the second quarter, Maersk reported preliminary underlying EBITDA of US$ 3 billion, above the US$ 2.04 billion projected by analysts in the consensus compiled by LSEG. After the second increase in its 2026 earnings guidance, the shares rose 7% in European morning trading on August 13.
In addition to the effects on shipping routes, pressure on freight rates has begun to reflect constraints on land. Port terminals, cargo facilities, roads, and railways are facing capacity limits after years of underinvestment, while traded volumes continue to grow. In Asian hubs such as Shanghai, ports’ difficulty absorbing demand has caused delays.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, low water levels in the Rhine River, and challenges in the Panama Canal have also shifted some cargo to road transport. In several markets, however, trucking capacity is not keeping pace with demand, increasing volatility and logistics bottlenecks.
Disruptions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz also reduced the practical availability of vessels, benefiting carriers and contributing to higher freight rates. As some companies gradually resume Red Sea crossings, this support may weaken, while excess capacity is likely to put downward pressure on rates over the long term.
Despite the appreciation, most analysts tracked by Bloomberg remain cautious: only one of 26 professionals had a buy recommendation. HSBC’s positive assessment is that Maersk is better positioned than long-haul competitors such as Hapag-Lloyd and Cosco Shipping because it combines ocean shipping, logistics, and terminal services. According to this analysis, diversification helps cushion the impact on earnings.
Other firms project a slowdown. JPMorgan said current profit and freight-rate levels are unsustainable in the medium term and warned that cash generation may not translate into meaningful shareholder returns, given the need to increase investment in ships to halt the loss of capacity share observed over the past six years.
Hapag-Lloyd also recorded higher volumes and spot rates, but suffered a US$ 600 million impact related to the conflict in the Middle East, mainly from fuel and energy costs. For Maersk, the next results, expected in November, are viewed by Barclays as a possible positive catalyst, although the duration of the factors supporting freight rates remains uncertain.